China’s Nuclear Expansion Beyond Deterrence

A recent report from the Hudson Institute reveals that China is expanding its nuclear arsenal not just for deterrence but to assert dominance in Asia. This strategic shift aims to intimidate U.S. allies and weaken American influence across the region. The report predicts that by the mid-2030s, China will rival the United States in nuclear capability, possessing over 1,000 warheads and a fully developed nuclear triad.

Strategic Manipulation of U.S. Alliances

The report argues that China’s goal is not to win a nuclear war but to undermine trust in America’s nuclear umbrella, particularly among U.S. allies in East and Southeast Asia. By creating doubt about U.S. defense commitments, China seeks to pressure countries like Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea into strategic passivity. This strategy could allow Beijing more freedom to act, including potential moves on Taiwan, without provoking a strong allied response.

Advanced Military Technologies and Psychological Operations

China’s military strategy combines rapid nuclear modernization with psychological operations and information warfare. The country is investing in advanced technologies such as hypersonic vehicles and orbital bombardment systems, capable of delivering nuclear strikes with minimal warning. These developments enhance China’s ability to launch attacks from various platforms, including silos, submarines, and aircraft.

Recommendations for U.S. Policy

The Hudson Institute urges the U.S. to abandon hopes of arms control with China and adopt a doctrine of strategic ambiguity to deter Beijing through strength and unpredictability. The report suggests that Washington and its allies must demonstrate that China’s nuclear buildup is counterproductive, leading to regional rearmament rather than fear.

Case Studies on Regional Impact

The report includes case studies on the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea, highlighting China’s use of nuclear intimidation in each context. For instance, Manila faces threats related to hosting U.S. missile systems, while Tokyo contends with information campaigns undermining confidence in U.S. commitments. Meanwhile, Seoul remains focused on North Korea’s threat, with China working to keep it disengaged from broader regional conflicts.

Implications for U.S. Defense Strategy

The report’s findings come ahead of the Pentagon’s global force posture review, expected to announce a shift in military focus from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. This reflects the Biden administration’s emphasis on countering China’s growing influence as part of great power competition.